Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 27 November 2013 Trend is Bullish

RSI and MACD are supporting Sell while STOCHRSI supports Buy. Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour time frame favours selling. It seems that the bulls are trying to defend the 1237 support level. A break below 1237 will create ease in the way towards 1222. Any close on daily basis below 1237 may develop psychological sell pressure. 1180 will be first target in that case.

Any close above the $1260 level will increase buying trend, it will be a clear indication of bullish momentum shift. we will go long in that case. !260 level is very important for today and we will watch it closely as Tenkan-sen line ( nine-period moving average ) resides here on the daily chart.Please have a look on chart it is indicated with red colour.

gold price forecast

Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00

Resistance          1246.00 1252.00 1261.00 1270.00 1280.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1240.00 keeping Stop loss at 1225.00, target is 1258 and 1280.00.

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 26 November 2013 Trend is Sideways

On Monday Gold prices printed 1227.45 per troy ounce, the lowest since 8 July 2013. Gold prices rebounded from 1227.45, our target was 1225 for yesterday. Price of gold bounced on short covering as gold price moved mildly into oversold territory and weaker than expected home sales data. Gold price fell down on fears of tapering in asset purchase by Federal reserve . FED decision depends on economic growth so every US data showing strength in economy will push down the prices and every US data showing weakness in economy or stay in economy will favour higher prices.

US Dollar showed some weakness after release of weaker than expected pending home sale data. Dollar index against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.25% to trade at 80.77 and usually gold takes benefits from Dollar weakness because gold is considered as an alternative asset and it makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

[caption id="attachment_2652" align="aligncenter" width="659"] gold price forecast[/caption]

As I discussed this point earlier in different posts and I am repeating it again, In my opinion Fed will not pull the trigger before march 2014. There are very rare chances that FED will reach at any decision in its next policy meeting. There are great chances that today,s Data will not support economy. Furthermore, In early January 2014 we may see another debt ceiling battle between the Republicans and Democrats.

We stopped out yesterday at 1249.50 per troy ounce and low since publication of this post is 1249.55 per troy ounce.  Comex gold prices rose to a weekly high of $1257.85 during European morning trade. 14-DMA stands at 1274.00 which will serve as next target for today, RSI is showing improvement Stochastic Oscillator is Oversold which indicates neutral to higher prices in upcoming sessions.

Support        1249.50 1240.00 1235.00 1225.00 1220.00 
Resistance   1261.00 1268.00 1273.00 1278.00 1282.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on the discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1243.00 keeping stop loss at 1233. First target is 1260.00 and second target is 1272.00. Please cancel the limit order if we fail to get any entry before the market closure.

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 25 November 2013 Trend is Negative

Last week Gold prices tumbled 3.36%,week settled at $1244.10/ troy ounce posting the biggest weekly loss in ten weeks. Gold futures ended Friday’s session little changed near a four-month low concerning the fears of tapering of the bond-purchasing program as soon as December by Fed.

Since April 2013, prices of Gold have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the federal Reserve would start tapering its $85 billion per month asset purchase program by the end of the year.

On Thursday price for December contract fell to $1235.80/ troy ounce , the lowest level since July 9, 2013. Gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.04% on Friday at New York Mercantile Exchange.

Sell pressure increased after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on Wednesday. Fed sang the same old tune, if the economy growth continues to improve as expected then the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion bond asset purchasing program in the “coming months”. There was nothing new in Federal Reserve minutes however tone was supportive . Traders interpreted that FEd may start its programme of tapering in asset purchase in December 2013. There are great chances that Mr. Ben will through the ball in court of Janet Yellen, the new nominee of FED chairperson by president Obama .

A series of US data on the housing sector,Pending Home Sales (Monday), Building Permits (Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday),Building Permits(Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday) will be released.Market players will observe data closely. Similarly US data relating Unemployment Claims, consumer confidence and durable goods orders will be hot issues during this week.

The RSI is supporting Sell,MACD is heading down and STOCHRSI is oversold all signals are collectively supporting a negative trend ahead. Ichimoku clouds are also blocking the bullish movements.

Support               1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00 1185.00

Resistance         1240.00 1252.00 1261.00 1268.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our short is active from 1249.50 , we suggest moving stop loss at 1240 Target is same i.e @ 1225. We may short again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.

Based on the details above we may short the metal again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 22 November 2013 Trend is Choppy

We went short at 1249.50 and successfully exited one lot . We suggested to move the stop loss at break even for remaining or clearing it too as I was leaving .Price of gold closed at 1242 our second is still active

A fall below yesterday’s low will lead towards our second target at 1226. A break below 1226 may push the prices towards 1208 but there is a lot of noise in the way. The RSI is flat and the MACD is heading down, suggesting a negative trend ahead.

On the other hand, 1256.00 will resist in upward way.

Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1208.00 1200.00
Resistance         1249.50 1256.00 1262.00 1272.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our trade is active with a stop loss at 1249.50(break even), If we stop out we will sell again at 1255 keeping stop loss at 1268.

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 20 November 2013 Trend is 

Negative

We discussed yesterday that traders might wait for US data relating Core CPI, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales. The last one is most important as the sale of a home involves a wide-reaching ripple effect. Such as, new owners do renovations  , a  financing bank sells mortgage  and brokers get commission to execute the transaction . Larger sale is an indicator of good economic health.

Market is standing at an edge where the rumours of tapering in bond purchasing push the prices of commodities towards lower levels and just in few hours or in a day we saw an increase in the price. If we observe on the basis of four weeks, we see that price moved in the range $101 only.

DATE	LAST	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CHANGE %
Nov 17, 2013	1269.60	1288.80	1289.00	1268.50	-1.54%
Nov 10, 2013	1289.50	1287.60	1293.60	1260.70	0.12%
Nov 03, 2013	1288.00	1313.90	1325.70	1280.70	-2.12%
Oct 27, 2013	1315.90	1353.30	1361.70	1305.80	0.00%

Highest  1361.70     Lowest: 1260.70     Difference: 101.00      Average: 1290.75

Gold did almost nothing except direction-less back and forth moves during the session on Tuesday. 1270 (plus minus $6) proved a significant support. we are unable to find supportive candles in order to start buying here. Once we get signals on a daily close, we will go long.

Yesterday Price of gold attempted to break below 1268 but buyers jumped in with more doveish comments from top Federal Reserve officials . Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said “I am not in a hurry myself to reduce the flow of purchases. I’d rather wait just a little bit longer and have more confidence”. While Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, still waiting for the labour market improvement to initiate the process of tapering.

The RSI and the MACD are suggesting a negative trend ahead On the 4-hour chart borders of the Ichimoku clouds reside at 1282 and 1293 levels. 1293 level may prove a strategic point for the bulls to conquer in order to advance towards the 1306 and further high (1326). The bearish pressure may increase if we close below the 1268 area, Next solid technical resistance stands at 1251.60. Break below 1251.60 may clear the ways to 1226.
we will continue to favour the bearish scenario as long as we are below the intraday resistance at 1278.

Support                1268.00   1261.00   1252.00   1240.00   1235.00
Resistance          1278.00   1285.00   1290.00   1296.00   1300.00

Gold Forecast

Price of gold moved lower before opening New York, Based on discussion above we favour lower prices for today. Currently we are waiting for a safe entry point.

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis and Forecast 11 November 2013 Trend Neutral to Bearish

We expect a limited movement today.

Support           1278.00  1275.00  1270.00  1265.00  1260.00
Resistance      1288.00  1298.00  1304.00  1308.00  1315.00

Gold Analysis

We suggest selling gold at 1298 keeping stop loss at 1308 target is 1274
or
buy at 1272 keeping stop loss at 1262. target is 1294 which ever comes first.

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Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis and Forecast 8 November 2013 Trend is Sideways

I am traveling so there will be very short description for few days . Sorry for this.

Support          1308.00 1302.00 1297.00 1290.00 1280.00 

Resistance    1314.00 1318.00 1324.00 1330.00 1340.00

Gold Forecast

We suggest selling at 1317.00 one lot only target is 1304.00 Stop loss 1330.00

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis, 5 November,2013 Trend is sideways to bounce

Gold Analysis presented by us worked fine but price of gold remained in a limited range. As we discussed yesterday that intraday trend supports bears.

Price of gold founded good support near 1311 areas yesterday and may rebound to $1,336. We went short at 1321 yesterday with a target of 1306 and 1296 respectively. We cleared at 1315.30 as chances of a break below the support were reduced.

In case of break below 1311, 50 % Fibonacci retracement on the rise from the Oct. 15 low of 1251.66 to the Oct. 28 high of $1,361.60 stands at 1306 which may provide enough potential to rebound to 1336. Apparently chances of a break below the support has been significantly reduced.
Successful break below 1304 may confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards the 61.8 percent retracement at 1294.

Support                1311.00 1305.80 1300.00 1294.00 1288.00
Resistance           1318.50 1322.00 1328.00 1336.00 1340.00

Gold Analysis

Based on the charts, technical indicators and discussions above we are waiting for a good entry point

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis

We went short at 1321 and cleared our position at 1315.40. Due to internet connectivity issue we were unable to share our gold analysis here. however we shared it on our website.
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Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis, 1 November,2013  Trend is sideways to Negative

Gold continued losing prices for the third consecutive say. Price of Gold closed at 1322 losing $19.87. Selling pressure forced gold below the 14-DMA and the 100-DMA. The MACD is

supporting lower prices in future and the RSI is signaling a negative trend ahead.

Support                     1313.00  1308.00  1302.00   1296.00   1288.00

Resistance                1321.00  1328.00  1336.00   1342.00   1346.00

Gold Analysis

We are neutral as the picture is not clear for sell here . We are not in favour of buying above 1308

Gold Analysis

We sent emails to all of our registered members,
"We went long at 1321 , we suggest clearing the long position here @ 1326.30"
Currently scenario is not clear we will update later if we find any suitable entry point