Monday, November 25, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 25 November 2013 Trend is Negative

Last week Gold prices tumbled 3.36%,week settled at $1244.10/ troy ounce posting the biggest weekly loss in ten weeks. Gold futures ended Friday’s session little changed near a four-month low concerning the fears of tapering of the bond-purchasing program as soon as December by Fed.
Since April 2013, prices of Gold have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the federal Reserve would start tapering its $85 billion per month asset purchase program by the end of the year.
On Thursday price for December contract fell to $1235.80/ troy ounce , the lowest level since July 9, 2013. Gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.04% on Friday at New York Mercantile Exchange.

gold forecast
Sell pressure increased after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on Wednesday. Fed sang the same old tune, if the economy growth continues to improve as expected then the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion bond asset purchasing program in the “coming months”. There was nothing new in Federal Reserve minutes however tone was supportive . Traders interpreted that FEd may start its programme of tapering in asset purchase in December 2013. There are great chances that Mr. Ben will through the ball in court of Janet Yellen, the new nominee of FED chairperson by president Obama .
A series of US data on the housing sector,Pending Home Sales (Monday), Building Permits (Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday),Building Permits(Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday) will be released.Market players will observe data closely. Similarly US data relating Unemployment Claims, consumer confidence and durable goods orders will be hot issues during this week.
The RSI is supporting Sell,MACD is heading down and STOCHRSI is oversold all signals are collectively supporting a negative trend ahead. Ichimoku clouds are also blocking the bullish movements.

Support               1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00 1185.00
Resistance         1240.00 1252.00 1261.00 1268.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our short is active from 1249.50 , we suggest moving stop loss at 1240 Target is same i.e @ 1225. We may short again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.
Based on the details above we may short the metal again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 22 November 2013 Trend is Choppy

We went short at 1249.50 and successfully exited one lot . We suggested to move the stop loss at break even for remaining or clearing it too as I was leaving .Price of gold closed at 1242 our second is still active
A fall below yesterday’s low will lead towards our second target at 1226. A break below 1226 may push the prices towards 1208 but there is a lot of noise in the way. The RSI is flat and the MACD is heading down, suggesting a negative trend ahead.
On the other hand, 1256.00 will resist in upward way.
Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1208.00 1200.00
Resistance         1249.50 1256.00 1262.00 1272.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our trade is active with a stop loss at 1249.50(break even), If we stop out we will sell again at 1255 keeping stop loss at 1268.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 20 November 2013 Trend is 

Negative

We discussed yesterday that traders might wait for US data relating Core CPI, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales. The last one is most important as the sale of a home involves a wide-reaching ripple effect. Such as, new owners do renovations  , a  financing bank sells mortgage  and brokers get commission to execute the transaction . Larger sale is an indicator of good economic health.
Market is standing at an edge where the rumours of tapering in bond purchasing push the prices of commodities towards lower levels and just in few hours or in a day we saw an increase in the price. If we observe on the basis of four weeks, we see that price moved in the range $101 only.
DATE          LAST      OPEN      HIGH      LOW       CHANGE % 
Nov 17, 20131269.601288.801289.001268.50-1.54%
Nov 10, 20131289.501287.601293.601260.700.12%
Nov 03, 20131288.001313.901325.701280.70-2.12%
Oct 27, 20131315.901353.301361.701305.800.00%
Highest  1361.70     Lowest: 1260.70     Difference: 101.00      Average: 1290.75
Gold did almost nothing except direction-less back and forth moves during the session on Tuesday. 1270 (plus minus $6) proved a significant support. we are unable to find supportive candles in order to start buying here. Once we get signals on a daily close, we will go long.
Yesterday Price of gold attempted to break below 1268 but buyers jumped in with more doveish comments from top Federal Reserve officials . Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said “I am not in a hurry myself to reduce the flow of purchases. I’d rather wait just a little bit longer and have more confidence”. While Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, still waiting for the labour market improvement to initiate the process of tapering.
The RSI and the MACD are suggesting a negative trend ahead On the 4-hour chart borders of the Ichimoku clouds reside at 1282 and 1293 levels. 1293 level may prove a strategic point for the bulls to conquer in order to advance towards the 1306 and further high (1326). The bearish pressure may increase if we close below the 1268 area, Next solid technical resistance stands at 1251.60. Break below 1251.60 may clear the ways to 1226.
we will continue to favour the bearish scenario as long as we are below the intraday resistance at 1278.
Support                1268.00   1261.00   1252.00   1240.00   1235.00
Resistance          1278.00   1285.00   1290.00   1296.00   1300.00

Gold Forecast

Price of gold moved lower before opening New York, Based on discussion above we favour lower prices for today. Currently we are waiting for a safe entry point.