Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 27 November 2013 Trend is Bullish

RSI and MACD are supporting Sell while STOCHRSI supports Buy. Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour time frame favours selling. It seems that the bulls are trying to defend the 1237 support level. A break below 1237 will create ease in the way towards 1222. Any close on daily basis below 1237 may develop psychological sell pressure. 1180 will be first target in that case.
Any close above the $1260 level will increase buying trend, it will be a clear indication of bullish momentum shift. we will go long in that case. !260 level is very important for today and we will watch it closely as Tenkan-sen line ( nine-period moving average ) resides here on the daily chart.Please have a look on chart it is indicated with red colour.
gold price forecast
gold price forecast
Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00
Resistance          1246.00 1252.00 1261.00 1270.00 1280.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1240.00 keeping Stop loss at 1225.00, target is 1258 and 1280.00.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 26 November 2013 Trend is Sideways

On Monday Gold prices printed 1227.45 per troy ounce, the lowest since 8 July 2013. Gold prices rebounded from 1227.45, our target was 1225 for yesterday. Price of gold bounced on short covering as gold price moved mildly into oversold territory and weaker than expected home sales data. Gold price fell down on fears of tapering in asset purchase by Federal reserve . FED decision depends on economic growth so every US data showing strength in economy will push down the prices and every US data showing weakness in economy or stay in economy will favour higher prices.
US Dollar showed some weakness after release of weaker than expected pending home sale data. Dollar index against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.25% to trade at 80.77 and usually gold takes benefits from Dollar weakness because gold is considered as an alternative asset and it makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
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As I discussed this point earlier in different posts and I am repeating it again, In my opinion Fed will not pull the trigger before march 2014. There are very rare chances that FED will reach at any decision in its next policy meeting. There are great chances that today,s Data will not support economy. Furthermore, In early January 2014 we may see another debt ceiling battle between the Republicans and Democrats.
We stopped out yesterday at 1249.50 per troy ounce and low since publication of this post is 1249.55 per troy ounce.  Comex gold prices rose to a weekly high of $1257.85 during European morning trade. 14-DMA stands at 1274.00 which will serve as next target for today, RSI is showing improvement Stochastic Oscillator is Oversold which indicates neutral to higher prices in upcoming sessions.

Support        1249.50 1240.00 1235.00 1225.00 1220.00 
Resistance   1261.00 1268.00 1273.00 1278.00 1282.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on the discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1243.00 keeping stop loss at 1233. First target is 1260.00 and second target is 1272.00. Please cancel the limit order if we fail to get any entry before the market closure.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 25 November 2013 Trend is Negative

Last week Gold prices tumbled 3.36%,week settled at $1244.10/ troy ounce posting the biggest weekly loss in ten weeks. Gold futures ended Friday’s session little changed near a four-month low concerning the fears of tapering of the bond-purchasing program as soon as December by Fed.
Since April 2013, prices of Gold have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the federal Reserve would start tapering its $85 billion per month asset purchase program by the end of the year.
On Thursday price for December contract fell to $1235.80/ troy ounce , the lowest level since July 9, 2013. Gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.04% on Friday at New York Mercantile Exchange.

gold forecast
Sell pressure increased after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on Wednesday. Fed sang the same old tune, if the economy growth continues to improve as expected then the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion bond asset purchasing program in the “coming months”. There was nothing new in Federal Reserve minutes however tone was supportive . Traders interpreted that FEd may start its programme of tapering in asset purchase in December 2013. There are great chances that Mr. Ben will through the ball in court of Janet Yellen, the new nominee of FED chairperson by president Obama .
A series of US data on the housing sector,Pending Home Sales (Monday), Building Permits (Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday),Building Permits(Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday) will be released.Market players will observe data closely. Similarly US data relating Unemployment Claims, consumer confidence and durable goods orders will be hot issues during this week.
The RSI is supporting Sell,MACD is heading down and STOCHRSI is oversold all signals are collectively supporting a negative trend ahead. Ichimoku clouds are also blocking the bullish movements.

Support               1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00 1185.00
Resistance         1240.00 1252.00 1261.00 1268.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our short is active from 1249.50 , we suggest moving stop loss at 1240 Target is same i.e @ 1225. We may short again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.
Based on the details above we may short the metal again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.