Monday, December 2, 2013

Gold Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Gold Price Forecast at $1110 in next 12 months.

Gold analysts are bearish for a second week as prices head for the biggest monthly drop since June and approach this year’s low on speculation the Federal Reserve will curb stimulus as the economy strengthens.
Enlarge image Gold Bears Persist as Prices Near Year’s Low on Fed: Commodities

Eighteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect prices to fall next week, nine are bullish and three neutral. The metal slipped 5.2 percent this month and is within 6.3 percent of the 34-month low of $1,180.50 an ounce set in June. Gold is poised for its first annual drop since 2000.
Bullion slid this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, forcing mining companies to make at least $26 billion of writedowns and billionaire John Paulson to say he wouldn’t personally invest more in his gold fund. U.S. data  relating jobless claims unexpectedly fell this week and leading economic indicators rose for a fourth month. Fed minutes signaled Nov. 20 that policy makers expected an improving economy to warrant trimming debt purchases in coming months.
“You don’t need it as a safe haven,” said John Stephenson, who helps oversee about C$2.8 billion ($2.64 billion) at First Asset Investment Management Inc. in Toronto. “The prevailing view on Wall Street is that the world is getting better. Now what the Fed is musing is that they’re going to start tapering.”
Gold’s Decline
Bullion slumped 25 percent to $1,254.35 this year in London, reaching $1,225.55 on Nov. 25, the lowest since July 8. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities dropped 3.4 percent since the end of December, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 19 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index lost 2.3 percent.
Gold prices went 70 percent higher from December 2008 to June 2011 as the U.S. central bank pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system, increasing concern about faster inflation and a weaker dollar. The Fed will pare monthly asset purchases to $70 billion, from the current pace of $85 billion, at its March 18-19 meeting, according to the median of economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey earlier this month.
The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against 10 major currencies, climbed 8 percent since gold reached a record $1,921.15 in September 2011 while global equities rallied to the highest since January 2008 this week. The Conference Board said Nov. 27 its gauge of the U.S. economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.2 percent in October. In a survey by Bloomberg News, Economists had called for no change.
ETP Sales
Investors dumped as much gold from exchange-traded products this year as they purchased in the previous three years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They sold 789.3 metric tons since the start of January, pushing holdings to the lowest since March 2010 and wiping $67.5 billion from the value of the funds.
Paulson, who owns the largest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold ETP, told clients last week that he personally wouldn’t invest more money, according to a person familiar with the matter. Paulson, who maintained his SPDR position in the third quarter after cutting holdings by 53 percent in the previous three months, lost 63 percent year-to-date in his PFR Gold Fund, said the person.
Gold price rose as much as 21 % in the two months through August. Lower prices boosted jewelry, bar and coin purchases, particularly in Asia. Volumes for cash gold of 99.99 percent purity traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange climbed this week to the most since the end of September, bourse data show.
Chinese Demand
China’s net imports of gold from Hong Kong reached 129.9 tons in October, the second highest on record, government data show. Chinese consumer demand for the metal rose 30 percent in the 12 months through September, according to the World Gold Council. That puts it on track to overtake the top consumer India, where purchases gained at a slower rate of 24 percent amid government import restrictions.
Prices are “beginning to look oversold,” said Jonathan Butler, a precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corp. International (Europe) Plc in London. The metal’s 14-day relative-strength index fell below 30 last week, at this level some analysts using technical charts say that the price may be poised to rebound. The gauge was at 39.8 today.
Hedge funds and other speculators cut bets on price gains by 56 percent since the end of October, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They held a net-long position of 44,291 contracts in the week to Nov. 19, the lowest since July 9. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees prices at $1,110 in 12 months.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 2 December 2013 Trend is Neutral to Positive
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 27 November 2013 Trend is Bullish

RSI and MACD are supporting Sell while STOCHRSI supports Buy. Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour time frame favours selling. It seems that the bulls are trying to defend the 1237 support level. A break below 1237 will create ease in the way towards 1222. Any close on daily basis below 1237 may develop psychological sell pressure. 1180 will be first target in that case.
Any close above the $1260 level will increase buying trend, it will be a clear indication of bullish momentum shift. we will go long in that case. !260 level is very important for today and we will watch it closely as Tenkan-sen line ( nine-period moving average ) resides here on the daily chart.Please have a look on chart it is indicated with red colour.
gold price forecast
gold price forecast
Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00
Resistance          1246.00 1252.00 1261.00 1270.00 1280.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1240.00 keeping Stop loss at 1225.00, target is 1258 and 1280.00.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 26 November 2013 Trend is Sideways

On Monday Gold prices printed 1227.45 per troy ounce, the lowest since 8 July 2013. Gold prices rebounded from 1227.45, our target was 1225 for yesterday. Price of gold bounced on short covering as gold price moved mildly into oversold territory and weaker than expected home sales data. Gold price fell down on fears of tapering in asset purchase by Federal reserve . FED decision depends on economic growth so every US data showing strength in economy will push down the prices and every US data showing weakness in economy or stay in economy will favour higher prices.
US Dollar showed some weakness after release of weaker than expected pending home sale data. Dollar index against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.25% to trade at 80.77 and usually gold takes benefits from Dollar weakness because gold is considered as an alternative asset and it makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
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As I discussed this point earlier in different posts and I am repeating it again, In my opinion Fed will not pull the trigger before march 2014. There are very rare chances that FED will reach at any decision in its next policy meeting. There are great chances that today,s Data will not support economy. Furthermore, In early January 2014 we may see another debt ceiling battle between the Republicans and Democrats.
We stopped out yesterday at 1249.50 per troy ounce and low since publication of this post is 1249.55 per troy ounce.  Comex gold prices rose to a weekly high of $1257.85 during European morning trade. 14-DMA stands at 1274.00 which will serve as next target for today, RSI is showing improvement Stochastic Oscillator is Oversold which indicates neutral to higher prices in upcoming sessions.

Support        1249.50 1240.00 1235.00 1225.00 1220.00 
Resistance   1261.00 1268.00 1273.00 1278.00 1282.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on the discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1243.00 keeping stop loss at 1233. First target is 1260.00 and second target is 1272.00. Please cancel the limit order if we fail to get any entry before the market closure.