Monday, December 2, 2013

Gold Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Gold Price Forecast at $1110 in next 12 months.

Gold analysts are bearish for a second week as prices head for the biggest monthly drop since June and approach this year’s low on speculation the Federal Reserve will curb stimulus as the economy strengthens.
Enlarge image Gold Bears Persist as Prices Near Year’s Low on Fed: Commodities

Eighteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect prices to fall next week, nine are bullish and three neutral. The metal slipped 5.2 percent this month and is within 6.3 percent of the 34-month low of $1,180.50 an ounce set in June. Gold is poised for its first annual drop since 2000.
Bullion slid this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, forcing mining companies to make at least $26 billion of writedowns and billionaire John Paulson to say he wouldn’t personally invest more in his gold fund. U.S. data  relating jobless claims unexpectedly fell this week and leading economic indicators rose for a fourth month. Fed minutes signaled Nov. 20 that policy makers expected an improving economy to warrant trimming debt purchases in coming months.
“You don’t need it as a safe haven,” said John Stephenson, who helps oversee about C$2.8 billion ($2.64 billion) at First Asset Investment Management Inc. in Toronto. “The prevailing view on Wall Street is that the world is getting better. Now what the Fed is musing is that they’re going to start tapering.”
Gold’s Decline
Bullion slumped 25 percent to $1,254.35 this year in London, reaching $1,225.55 on Nov. 25, the lowest since July 8. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities dropped 3.4 percent since the end of December, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 19 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index lost 2.3 percent.
Gold prices went 70 percent higher from December 2008 to June 2011 as the U.S. central bank pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system, increasing concern about faster inflation and a weaker dollar. The Fed will pare monthly asset purchases to $70 billion, from the current pace of $85 billion, at its March 18-19 meeting, according to the median of economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey earlier this month.
The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against 10 major currencies, climbed 8 percent since gold reached a record $1,921.15 in September 2011 while global equities rallied to the highest since January 2008 this week. The Conference Board said Nov. 27 its gauge of the U.S. economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.2 percent in October. In a survey by Bloomberg News, Economists had called for no change.
ETP Sales
Investors dumped as much gold from exchange-traded products this year as they purchased in the previous three years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They sold 789.3 metric tons since the start of January, pushing holdings to the lowest since March 2010 and wiping $67.5 billion from the value of the funds.
Paulson, who owns the largest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold ETP, told clients last week that he personally wouldn’t invest more money, according to a person familiar with the matter. Paulson, who maintained his SPDR position in the third quarter after cutting holdings by 53 percent in the previous three months, lost 63 percent year-to-date in his PFR Gold Fund, said the person.
Gold price rose as much as 21 % in the two months through August. Lower prices boosted jewelry, bar and coin purchases, particularly in Asia. Volumes for cash gold of 99.99 percent purity traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange climbed this week to the most since the end of September, bourse data show.
Chinese Demand
China’s net imports of gold from Hong Kong reached 129.9 tons in October, the second highest on record, government data show. Chinese consumer demand for the metal rose 30 percent in the 12 months through September, according to the World Gold Council. That puts it on track to overtake the top consumer India, where purchases gained at a slower rate of 24 percent amid government import restrictions.
Prices are “beginning to look oversold,” said Jonathan Butler, a precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corp. International (Europe) Plc in London. The metal’s 14-day relative-strength index fell below 30 last week, at this level some analysts using technical charts say that the price may be poised to rebound. The gauge was at 39.8 today.
Hedge funds and other speculators cut bets on price gains by 56 percent since the end of October, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They held a net-long position of 44,291 contracts in the week to Nov. 19, the lowest since July 9. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees prices at $1,110 in 12 months.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 2 December 2013 Trend is Neutral to Positive
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 27 November 2013 Trend is Bullish

RSI and MACD are supporting Sell while STOCHRSI supports Buy. Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour time frame favours selling. It seems that the bulls are trying to defend the 1237 support level. A break below 1237 will create ease in the way towards 1222. Any close on daily basis below 1237 may develop psychological sell pressure. 1180 will be first target in that case.
Any close above the $1260 level will increase buying trend, it will be a clear indication of bullish momentum shift. we will go long in that case. !260 level is very important for today and we will watch it closely as Tenkan-sen line ( nine-period moving average ) resides here on the daily chart.Please have a look on chart it is indicated with red colour.
gold price forecast
gold price forecast
Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00
Resistance          1246.00 1252.00 1261.00 1270.00 1280.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1240.00 keeping Stop loss at 1225.00, target is 1258 and 1280.00.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis 26 November 2013 Trend is Sideways

On Monday Gold prices printed 1227.45 per troy ounce, the lowest since 8 July 2013. Gold prices rebounded from 1227.45, our target was 1225 for yesterday. Price of gold bounced on short covering as gold price moved mildly into oversold territory and weaker than expected home sales data. Gold price fell down on fears of tapering in asset purchase by Federal reserve . FED decision depends on economic growth so every US data showing strength in economy will push down the prices and every US data showing weakness in economy or stay in economy will favour higher prices.
US Dollar showed some weakness after release of weaker than expected pending home sale data. Dollar index against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.25% to trade at 80.77 and usually gold takes benefits from Dollar weakness because gold is considered as an alternative asset and it makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
[caption id="attachment_2652" align="aligncenter" width="659"]gold price forecast gold price forecast[/caption]
As I discussed this point earlier in different posts and I am repeating it again, In my opinion Fed will not pull the trigger before march 2014. There are very rare chances that FED will reach at any decision in its next policy meeting. There are great chances that today,s Data will not support economy. Furthermore, In early January 2014 we may see another debt ceiling battle between the Republicans and Democrats.
We stopped out yesterday at 1249.50 per troy ounce and low since publication of this post is 1249.55 per troy ounce.  Comex gold prices rose to a weekly high of $1257.85 during European morning trade. 14-DMA stands at 1274.00 which will serve as next target for today, RSI is showing improvement Stochastic Oscillator is Oversold which indicates neutral to higher prices in upcoming sessions.

Support        1249.50 1240.00 1235.00 1225.00 1220.00 
Resistance   1261.00 1268.00 1273.00 1278.00 1282.00

Gold Price Forecast

Based on the discussion above we suggest buying gold at 1243.00 keeping stop loss at 1233. First target is 1260.00 and second target is 1272.00. Please cancel the limit order if we fail to get any entry before the market closure.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 25 November 2013 Trend is Negative

Last week Gold prices tumbled 3.36%,week settled at $1244.10/ troy ounce posting the biggest weekly loss in ten weeks. Gold futures ended Friday’s session little changed near a four-month low concerning the fears of tapering of the bond-purchasing program as soon as December by Fed.
Since April 2013, prices of Gold have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the federal Reserve would start tapering its $85 billion per month asset purchase program by the end of the year.
On Thursday price for December contract fell to $1235.80/ troy ounce , the lowest level since July 9, 2013. Gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.04% on Friday at New York Mercantile Exchange.

gold forecast
Sell pressure increased after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on Wednesday. Fed sang the same old tune, if the economy growth continues to improve as expected then the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion bond asset purchasing program in the “coming months”. There was nothing new in Federal Reserve minutes however tone was supportive . Traders interpreted that FEd may start its programme of tapering in asset purchase in December 2013. There are great chances that Mr. Ben will through the ball in court of Janet Yellen, the new nominee of FED chairperson by president Obama .
A series of US data on the housing sector,Pending Home Sales (Monday), Building Permits (Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday),Building Permits(Tuesday),Housing Starts(Tuesday) will be released.Market players will observe data closely. Similarly US data relating Unemployment Claims, consumer confidence and durable goods orders will be hot issues during this week.
The RSI is supporting Sell,MACD is heading down and STOCHRSI is oversold all signals are collectively supporting a negative trend ahead. Ichimoku clouds are also blocking the bullish movements.

Support               1235.00 1220.00 1210.00 1200.00 1185.00
Resistance         1240.00 1252.00 1261.00 1268.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our short is active from 1249.50 , we suggest moving stop loss at 1240 Target is same i.e @ 1225. We may short again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.
Based on the details above we may short the metal again at 1244 keeping stop loss at 1254.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 22 November 2013 Trend is Choppy

We went short at 1249.50 and successfully exited one lot . We suggested to move the stop loss at break even for remaining or clearing it too as I was leaving .Price of gold closed at 1242 our second is still active
A fall below yesterday’s low will lead towards our second target at 1226. A break below 1226 may push the prices towards 1208 but there is a lot of noise in the way. The RSI is flat and the MACD is heading down, suggesting a negative trend ahead.
On the other hand, 1256.00 will resist in upward way.
Support                1240.00 1235.00 1220.00 1208.00 1200.00
Resistance         1249.50 1256.00 1262.00 1272.00 1278.00

Gold Forecast

Our trade is active with a stop loss at 1249.50(break even), If we stop out we will sell again at 1255 keeping stop loss at 1268.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Gold Analysis and Forecast

Gold Analysis and Forecast 20 November 2013 Trend is 

Negative

We discussed yesterday that traders might wait for US data relating Core CPI, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales. The last one is most important as the sale of a home involves a wide-reaching ripple effect. Such as, new owners do renovations  , a  financing bank sells mortgage  and brokers get commission to execute the transaction . Larger sale is an indicator of good economic health.
Market is standing at an edge where the rumours of tapering in bond purchasing push the prices of commodities towards lower levels and just in few hours or in a day we saw an increase in the price. If we observe on the basis of four weeks, we see that price moved in the range $101 only.
DATE          LAST      OPEN      HIGH      LOW       CHANGE % 
Nov 17, 20131269.601288.801289.001268.50-1.54%
Nov 10, 20131289.501287.601293.601260.700.12%
Nov 03, 20131288.001313.901325.701280.70-2.12%
Oct 27, 20131315.901353.301361.701305.800.00%
Highest  1361.70     Lowest: 1260.70     Difference: 101.00      Average: 1290.75
Gold did almost nothing except direction-less back and forth moves during the session on Tuesday. 1270 (plus minus $6) proved a significant support. we are unable to find supportive candles in order to start buying here. Once we get signals on a daily close, we will go long.
Yesterday Price of gold attempted to break below 1268 but buyers jumped in with more doveish comments from top Federal Reserve officials . Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said “I am not in a hurry myself to reduce the flow of purchases. I’d rather wait just a little bit longer and have more confidence”. While Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, still waiting for the labour market improvement to initiate the process of tapering.
The RSI and the MACD are suggesting a negative trend ahead On the 4-hour chart borders of the Ichimoku clouds reside at 1282 and 1293 levels. 1293 level may prove a strategic point for the bulls to conquer in order to advance towards the 1306 and further high (1326). The bearish pressure may increase if we close below the 1268 area, Next solid technical resistance stands at 1251.60. Break below 1251.60 may clear the ways to 1226.
we will continue to favour the bearish scenario as long as we are below the intraday resistance at 1278.
Support                1268.00   1261.00   1252.00   1240.00   1235.00
Resistance          1278.00   1285.00   1290.00   1296.00   1300.00

Gold Forecast

Price of gold moved lower before opening New York, Based on discussion above we favour lower prices for today. Currently we are waiting for a safe entry point.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis and Forecast 11 November 2013 Trend Neutral to Bearish

We expect a limited movement today.

Support           1278.00  1275.00  1270.00  1265.00  1260.00
Resistance      1288.00  1298.00  1304.00  1308.00  1315.00

Gold Analysis

We suggest selling gold at 1298 keeping stop loss at 1308 target is 1274
or
buy at 1272 keeping stop loss at 1262. target is 1294 which ever comes first.
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Friday, November 8, 2013

Gold Analysis


Gold Analysis and Forecast 8 November 2013 Trend is Sideways


I am traveling so there will be very short description for few days . Sorry for this.

Support          1308.00 1302.00 1297.00 1290.00 1280.00 
Resistance    1314.00 1318.00 1324.00 1330.00 1340.00

Gold Forecast

We suggest selling at 1317.00 one lot only target is 1304.00 Stop loss 1330.00

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis, 5 November,2013 Trend is sideways to bounce

Gold Analysis presented by us worked fine but price of gold remained in a limited range. As we discussed yesterday that intraday trend supports bears.
Price of gold founded good support near 1311 areas yesterday and may rebound to $1,336. We went short at 1321 yesterday with a target of 1306 and 1296 respectively. We cleared at 1315.30 as chances of a break below the support were reduced.
In case of break below 1311, 50 % Fibonacci retracement on the rise from the Oct. 15 low of 1251.66 to the Oct. 28 high of $1,361.60 stands at 1306 which may provide enough potential to rebound to 1336. Apparently chances of a break below the support has been significantly reduced.
Successful break below 1304 may confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards the 61.8 percent retracement at 1294.
Support                1311.00 1305.80 1300.00 1294.00 1288.00
Resistance           1318.50 1322.00 1328.00 1336.00 1340.00

Gold Analysis

Based on the charts, technical indicators and discussions above we are waiting for a good entry point

Monday, November 4, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis

We went short at 1321 and cleared our position at 1315.40. Due to internet connectivity issue we were unable to share our gold analysis here. however we shared it on our website.
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Friday, November 1, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis, 1 November,2013  Trend is sideways to Negative

Gold continued losing prices for the third consecutive say. Price of Gold closed at 1322 losing $19.87. Selling pressure forced gold below the 14-DMA and the 100-DMA. The MACD is
supporting lower prices in future and the RSI is signaling a negative trend ahead.
Support                     1313.00  1308.00  1302.00   1296.00   1288.00
Resistance                1321.00  1328.00  1336.00   1342.00   1346.00

Gold Analysis

We are neutral as the picture is not clear for sell here . We are not in favour of buying above 1308

Gold Analysis

We sent emails to all of our registered members,
"We went long at 1321 , we suggest clearing the long position here @ 1326.30"
Currently scenario is not clear we will update later if we find any suitable entry point

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 31,2013  Trend is Neutral to negative

Gold showed high volitilty yesterday printing lower highs and lower lows. We went short at 1355 yesterday. We updated via twitter to book profit when the price was at 1338.00. Yesterday we discused that price of gold may remain consolidated. We are holding our views for today too.
The Federal Open Market Committee announced“The Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month” .
Technical indicators are not signalling a clear view. On the daily time frame Price of gold failed to close above the Ichimoku clouds MA-20 stands at 1315.81 which will act as a resistance in case of any downward move. MA-5 stands at 1343.96 which attract fresh selling incase of higher prices. Current pattern suggests that bulls are fading.
Support            1330.00 1325.00 1315.00 1307.00 1302.00
Resistance        1346.00 1350.00 1360.00 1.367.00 1375.00

Gold Analysis

Based on the above description we suggest buying gold gold at 1321.00 keeping stop loss at 1310.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 28, 2013

Economic data of the world’s largest economy showed weakness, US dollar lost his value disappointing the traders. Price of gold traded as low as 1336.53, After the report of University of Michigan about its consumer sentiment index (which was declined to 73.2 from 75.2) and the Commerce Department’s report for core durable goods orders (which was decreased %0.1), price of moved higher and closed at 1351.54 on Friday.

Support               1345.00    1342.00    1336.00    1330.00    1326.00
Resistance           1355.00    1363.00    1372.00    1378.00    1382.00

Gold Analysis

 MACD and the RSI are on a rising trend, supporting the positive view We suggest read more

Thursday, October 24, 2013


Gold Analysis October 24, 2013

Price of gold showed neutral to negative movement yesterday. We missed our long entry by few cents only. We have internet connectivity issues so today there is very short description.
50-DMA (stands at 1344) may provide minor resistance in upward way towards 1364.

Support                1330.00 1325.00 1315.00 1310.00 1302.00
Resistance           1345.00 1350.00 1360.00 1367.00 1375.00

Gold Analysis

We suggest selling one lot at 1348 keeping stop loss at 1358. Target is 1328

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Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 23, 2013

Gold has closed above the 100-DMA, Gold printed a higher high and higher low which indicates further upside. 50-DMA (stands at 1344) may provide minor resistance in upward way towards 1364. The RSI and MACD are supporting positive view.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Gold Analysis

We are waiting for a safe entry point as indicators are mixed here.
Support        1310.00  1302.00  1293.00  1283.00  1273.00
Resistance     1315.00  1325.00  1330.00  1337.00  1343.00

Gold Analysis

we are waiting for a safe entry point. We will update later.
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Monday, October 21, 2013

Gold Analysis

Price of gold showed positivity during last week. However we believe that longer-term player will come in once the price of gold reaches above the 1350 level. Consolidation may continue as the news relating FED will affect the trader’s behaviour.
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Wednesday, October 16, 2013

GOLD,Silver ,OIl

we are on holidays for today and tomorrow

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 15, 2013

News relating improvement in resolving the U.S. budget issue, increased American dollar value. Democrats and Republicans are near a deal to end partial government shut down and suspend the debt ceiling through February 2014. It is a fact that they will solve this issue as no party wants to destroy the economy of their own country. The main issues are term and conditions which will play main role in the future of US people and government.
If stocks gain more value, safe haven demand will be less.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Update Gold 14 October 2013

we went short at 1283, we cleared our short at 1272.20.
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Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 14, 2013 
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Friday, October 11, 2013

Gold Analysis: Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis: Gold Analysis: Gold Analysis October 11, 2013 RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are supporting lower prices movement but it needs confirmation. Break...

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 11, 2013

RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are supporting lower prices movement but it needs confirmation. Break below 1272 will lead lower prices next week

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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Gold Analysis

Gold Analysis October 10, 2013

Price of gold broke the tight range of 1300-1330 but was unable to stay below this range. Price of gold made a low 1294.80 and quickly bounced back,  Price of gold closed lower than opening yesterday.
We are hopeful that Democrats and Republicans will resolve the budget crisis in a decent way to increase the debt ceiling before the deadline.(last time issue was resolved in last few mints and Price of Gold fell from 1920 and is still falling).
So far there is no significant breakthrough but high-level meetings are keeping hopes alive. Honestly, I don’t think that U.S. lawmakers will be stubborn enough to destroy their nation’s economy and reputation.
Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September 17-18 policy meeting improved US dollar. Most members of Federal Open Market Committee welcomed the decision of reduction in bond purchasing this year. According to the records, “Most participants viewed their economic projections as broadly consistent with a slowing in the pace of the committee’s purchases of longer-term securities this year and the completion of the program in mid-2014”.
Fibonacci 23.6% level from 1795.75 to 1180.21 stands at 1,325.47. Price of gold is trading below this level. 4-hour time frame shows that price of gold is trading below the Ichimoku cloud.  RSI and the MACD have taken a downturn, supporting a negative view. 14-DMA stands at 1318 which will resist in upward movement
Support              1300.00  1291.00  1280.00  1267.00
Resistance        1308.00  1312.00  1318.00  1333.00

Gold Analysis

we suggest selling gold one lot at 1312 keeping stop loss at 1327. or buying gold at 1391 one lot keeping stop loss at 1381.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Gold Analysis

+Gold analysis

Gold Analysis October 9, 2013

Trading Volume is low as traders may enter after FOMC minutes. Last time FOMC disappointed traders.US government shut down is a political drama. Its final episode will be released soon.
Support          1308.00 1302.00 1297.00 1292.00 1283.00
Resistance     1318.00 1325.00 1333.00 1345.00 1352.00

Gold Analysis

Our long trade @ 1312 is active stop loss is 1297.00.
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